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Administrative Arrangements

Books


Important dates

Timetable week

Teaching week

w/c

Notes

4

1

25/09/23

 

5

2

02/10/23

 

6

3

09/10/23

 

7

4

16/10/23

Ass. 1 due by 4pm on Oct. 20th

8

5

23/10/23

 

9

6

30/10/23

Ass. 2 due by 4pm on Nov. 3rd

10

06/11/23

Enrichment week (no teaching)

11

7

13/11/23

 

12

8

20/11/23

Ass. 3 due by 4pm on Nov. 24th

13

9

27/11/23

 

14

10

04/12/23

Ass. 4 due by 4pm on Dec. 8th

15

11

11/12/23

 

25/12/23

Xmas!

Table 1 Schedule

Late work policy

For normal written coursework, a deadline extension of up to 7 days can be requested (by means of submitting a PEC form); work submitted within 7 days of the deadline without good reason will be marked for reduced credit (following the University sliding scale). You should note that no work can be accepted more than 7 days after the original deadline; where work cannot be submitted by this time, the PEC Committee may agree instead to ’discount’ or ’exempt’ the work (although this would not be routine). For any time-limited assessments (e.g. tests open for 24 hours or less, including NUMBAS tests), rescheduling can be requested (by means of submitting a PEC form). Late work cannot be accepted for NUMBAS assessment; however, a deadline extension can be requested (by means of submitting a PEC form).

For details of the policy (including procedures in the event of illness etc.) please consult the Mathematics, Statistics & Physics Community pages on Canvas, under: Assessment Information, Late Work and Missed Assessments.


Course outline in brief

The course comprises five topics:

  1. Risk-free and risky assets

    • Interest, compounding of interest

    • Options of European and American type

  2. Continuous time models of stock price / cash position

    • Log-Normal distribution

    • Brownian motion, Geometric Brownian motion

    • Black-Scholes pricing

  3. Estimating Volatility

    • Using historic data

    • Implied volatility

  4. Exotic options and Monte Carlo simulation

    • Lookback, barrier and Asian options

    • Pricing using simulations from the model

  5. Introduction to Itô calculus

    • Itô integral

    • Stochastic differential equations (SDEs)

    • Models of interest rate


Disclaimer

These notes may cover material that is not covered in the lectures. They may also omit some material that is covered. If you find any typos please let me know!


Revision

The majority of the course will use probability results for continuous random variables.

Probability Density Functions

Let be a random variable (r.v.). We say that is continuous if the probability of any fixed value is 0, i.e. , while the probability that takes one of the values in some interval , or , may be positive. We describe the probability law of such a variable in terms of its distribution function (d.f.) , . As we know, is always right-continuous and monotone, increasing (in fact, non-decreasing) from value at to value at

We assume more, that the d.f. obeys a density function, say . This means that

Recall that is a non-negative function and the total integral of is equal to 1.

With or at hand, the probability that takes a value in a given interval , , is

The mean value (expectation) of a ‘nice’ function of the r.v. is defined by

Transformations of Random Variables

Consider a random variable with p.d.f. . The p.d.f. of an arbitrary differentiable invertible transformation can be deduced as

Note that the term is known as the “Jacobian” of the transformation.


Normal Random Variables

  • We say that the r.v. has a normal distribution with parameters and , , if has the density function

    This density is also called normal or Gaussian. The expectation and the variance of are

    The graph of , is the familiar bell-shaped curve, symmetric about the axis .

  • A normal r.v. is called standard if and In this case we use the notation . That is to say, the density of is

    The graph of is symmetric about the -coordinate axis. The corresponding d.f. is

    It is is called the standard normal (or Gaussian) distribution function.

Useful Properties of Normal Random Variables

  • Linear Combinations: If the r.v. is normal, then so is , where are constants. If has mean and variance , then is standard normal. (Can you check this?) This fact enables us to express probabilities related to in terms of .

  • Independence of random variables: We say that the r.v.s are independent if for arbitrary intervals , where , closed or open, we have

    If independent r.v.s are normal with parameters , then the sum is normal as well, with mean and variance .

    In general, we have for arbitrary r.v.s and . In contrast to this, the equality holds only if and are uncorrelated (e.g. independent).

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